[Reprint] Kelly index return rates detailed solution (a) _ misty mountain people

Original address: return rates detailed solution (a) " > Kelly index return rates detailed solution (a) of the author: match three calculation formula: formula 1: Kelly index = accompany rate * average probability formula 2: return rate = 1/(1/win with + 1/flat with + 1/negative accompany) formula 2: probability = 1/paternity rate * return rate probability corresponding to a probability of betting money is betting the company considers the probability of negative occurrence game shengping. betting company evaluates shengping negative probability game, and then under the probability theory to accompany rate, theory with rate = 1/probability, as the case of Monaco, 1: 1 Santa days, William shengping negative probability 46.73% 29.60% 23.68%, theory with 2.14 3.38 4.22 (1/46.73% 1/29.60% 1/23.68%). takes note of the actual stay, William 1.90 3.003.75, this theory with the rate, we usually say that accompany rate is the rate of actual accompany, and probability of no actual probability and the difference between the theoretical probability-probability can be understood as betting funds, such as Monaco 1: 1 Santa days, William probability 46.73% 29.60% 23.68%, if this is the total funding of $ 100, then William think shengping negative respectively to funds 46.7329.60 and return rate of $ 23.68. dictates the level with the rate, on the return rates have seen actually accompany above rate and theory with rate comparison between different, actually accompany rate shengping negative three values are lower than the theory with rate, lower part is betting the company reduced with pay, pay part is reduced to accompany gaming company categorized as their own, this is for their own part is betting the company pumping, water is generally about 10%, the other 90% return to punters, the rate of return is called return rate, rate of return usually 90%, the rate of return of China Lottery about 65%, the company's return rates are generally more fixed rate by accompanying you directly calculate return rate, see the accompanying rate formula II. If the case, if this is the total 100 funding to pre-competitive William received a total of 100 Yuan (46.73 + 29.60 + 23.68), eventually playing out a draw, thanks to a draw with the rate of 3, William need to accompany the delivery of funds 88.8 element (29.6 * 3), William income 11.2 Yuan, the $ 11.2 is pumping, the return rate is 0.888 (88.8 Yuan/100)-just imagine, if you play this game or the main negative zhusheng, William paternity pay separately is 88.8 (46.73 * 1.9 and 23.68 * 3.75). both shoulder a game shengping will not affect the result, betting the company's second formula with pay-as probability = 1/paternity rate * return rate, you can transform to accompany rate = 1/probability * return rate, since the 1/probability = theory with rate, so with rate = theoretical rate of return with rate *, such as William accompany rate 1.903.003.75, respectively is 2.14 * 0.88.8, 3.38 * 0.88, 4.22 * 0.88, understood as the rate of actual accompanied William are theoretical 0.88 times with rate (return rate)-just imagine, if in theory with rate unchanged, if the return rate is low, then the actual stay, the lower the rate would be, in the case of negative 0DDSET shengping accompany rate low out William accompany rate a lot, it is because the refund rate 80.1, than William shengping negative with rate than the average low is because the average rate of return with rate higher, so 90.5 return rate with rate level dictates.